As the Christian products industry wrestles with great changes, it's important to remember that they are not happening in isolation. There has never been a time when the future—in any sphere—is less likely to resemble the past than right now.

People are spending a lot of time trying to "think outside the box." But sometimes the box itself becomes irrelevant as it's replaced by a new set of rules—a whole new box. The new rules make yesterday's solutions obsolete.

The more precise you try to be in your prediction of the future, the greater your chances of being wrong when it finally arrives. The key to navigating an uncertain future is to monitor current events, relate them to the realities of yesterday and anticipate obstacles, opportunities and new rules that might lie ahead.

Consider five key cultural factors that are shaping the future world in which we create and distribute Christian resources, and how they might impact what you do.

TiVo/iTunes culture

Brand managers have long measured success by the extent to which consumers altered their lifestyle to use a particular product or service. Product advertisers succeeded when you changed your habits and bought a different brand of toilet paper or toothpaste. Starbucks has trained the world to leave for work early, stand in line longer and pay a lot more for something that most of us once brewed for pennies a cup.

Consumers are no longer satisfied with buying what they find on the shelf, though. Starbucks doesn't just sell a cup of coffee—there's an estimated 15,000 beverage combinations available. iTunes lets shoppers buy only what they want.

As a kid, I was never able to watch The Wonderful World of Disney because it aired Sunday evenings, and we were in church. Now, I can be in church Sunday morning and still watch Meet the Press because TiVo lets me alter the network's product to fit my schedule.

A publishing house recently gave readers the opportunity to influence the ending of an unfinished novel. You can buy an attachment for your iPod that slips into a running shoe and alters the tempo of the music to match your pace. The Internet lets shoppers browse store shelves on their own time. You can order M&Ms candies with your own message on each piece.

Consumers have come to expect this individuality and are extending their demands for it well beyond retail situations. Airlines allow passengers to choose their own seats online. Auto insurers provide policy holders with a buffet of services from which to choose.

The little engine that could is running out of steam. Western culture has had a voracious appetite for buying things. More. Bigger. Faster. Cleaner. Newer. Tastier. Meatier. Healthier. But the consumer juggernaut has begun to stall. "I think I can, I think I can" is being replaced with, "I'm tired, and I'd like to sit down."

It would be easy to point to the 9/11 attacks as a reason for this change, but there were signs prior to that. Back in 1987, Oliver Stone’s film Wall Street suggested there were downsides to a culture of greed.

The day could be coming when the world economy will no longer be accelerated by consumers living beyond their means. Growth rates will be slower. This may be the most difficult factor to accept and adjust to. Benchmarks of growth are an ingrained element of our societal DNA, and it might be impossible to imagine a model based on anything else. But, what if?

Right-brain influence

American consumers spent more money on ringtones and personalized cellphone cases in 2005 than they did on the cellphones themselves. Author Daniel Pink uses that fact to support his observation that Western culture is being driven less by logic or reason and more by a desire for beauty, meaning and significance.

In A Whole New Mind (Riverhead Books), Pink asserts that affluence, automation and a cheap labor force in Asia have brought Western culture to a place where there is very little we actually need. Creativity, self-esteem and mutual respect have become the driving force behind decisions. Take automobile marketing: When was the last time you came across a car commercial that talked about cubic-inch displacement? Buying a car is more about emotion than logic.

The need for good science and sound logic isn't dead, though. Quality, performance, reliability and service are expected minimum standards. But what turns on the "buy" switch are attributes that add aesthetics, provide meaning or help the user feel unique.

Could the worldwide increase in spirituality be the result of people saying: "I have everything I need. Now I want to understand what it all means"?

Episodic lifestyles

Marketers, demographers and business planners have always been able to count on the predictability of human beings. But the rules of demographics are changing. Homogeneous characteristics that identified particular social groups are breaking apart as people divide their lives into separate and distinct silos.

So we have politicians and preachers who rail publicly about immorality and themselves participate in the very activities they decry. Otherwise brilliant students with fine prospects for the future post ridiculously incriminating photos of themselves on the Internet. The so-called boundaries are being changed, and lines that once were never crossed are beginning to blur.

Consolidation and fragmentation

Some things are going to get bigger, some will get smaller—and some will do both.

The culture expects the convenience of a one-stop experience. Mega-stores. Megachurches. Megaplex theaters. Electronic books carry hundreds of volumes. Digital music players hold thousands of tunes.

Little organizations are being folded into larger companies at an accelerating rate, but the resulting greater efficiencies for owners won't always be met with support from customers—and that segues into the complementary factor of fragmentation.

As activity consolidates, it also fragments. Mega-stores consolidate commerce in one location, while at the same time shoppers have a virtually unlimited selection available online.

Seth Godin penned the phrase, "Small is the new big." Small firms need to display a bigness that will attract customers looking for the advantages of a larger operation, while larger companies will need to find ways to operate like smaller firms so they can compete with little guys who are more adept at changing to meet needs.

Then there is globalization. As products and services are fragmented, everything becomes more accessible. The world gets bigger for some, but smaller for others.

So where does that leave you? Think of these trends as landmarks. Draw connections between them, and consider how your business will be affected in the future. As with travel to new places, there are bound to be surprises and unexpected changes. But you'll have a better trip if you've studied the options ahead of time.

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