Signs of hope and opportunities highlighted in two new studies in business of evangelical channel

Two new studies of business in the Christian retail channel offer some encouragement to stores.

A “strong” 82% of those surveyed for CBA’s annual State of the Industry report said that they expect sales in 2010 to bethe same or better than 2009—with the overall weighted average projected sales increase for the year 2.2%

That outlook follows an average sales drop of just over 3% last year, though 25% of stores reported sales growth and nearly 9% said sales had been flat. Last year’s study found that 2008 sales had fallen almost 11% over the previous year.

Meanwhile, leading consumer researcher Britt Beemer’s America’s Research Group (ARG) has found a significant upswing in traffic and spending at Christian retail stores—fueled by a trend he said could be capitalized on with some good marketing.

AMG’s bi-monthly Consumer Mind Reader report for March—which tracks the performance of 26 retail categories—reported 8.9% of the population visiting a Christian bookstore the previous month, with per capita spending of $4.48. Those figures compared to 5.8% and $2.61 for the same time last year.

Similar results were found in January, with 9% of the population visiting a Christian bookstore and per capita spending at $6.35. Those figures compared with 6.1% and $4.58 for 12 months previously. The November 2009 data was 5.6% and $3.34.

While the March and January figures reflected spending the previous months that included Christmas and Presidents’ Day shopping upswings, Beemer told Christian Retailing that his researchers had found more than a seasonal reason for the increases.

Their survey results bore out anecdotal reports from stores that more people were looking for inspirational resources because of the tough economic times, he said. And with the average price point for gifts at Christmas dropping from $30-35 to $20-25, the desire for inspirational resources had made books a more popular choice, he added.

“More and more parents told us how they were concerned about what their kids are being taught in school, and almost 3% were looking at Christian bookstores as a place to shop for a number of their kids’ Christmas gifts.”

Beemer’s Christmas findings were a little at odds with those of the CBA study—based on 150 responses representing almost 200 locations—which found that Christian stores lagged behind all retail during the 2009 Christmas season. They reported an average 2.1% decrease in net holiday sales, while the National Retail Federation reported all 2009 Christmas-season retail sales up 1.1% from the same 2008 period.

More positively, the CBA report said that the rate of store closures slowed slightly last year with a net loss of 32 stores compared to 37 stores in 2008, and fewer new stores opening.

CBA said that its survey also indicated that church-relations strategies “contribute significantly to positive store growth.” Among stores hosting at least one pastor’s event in 2009, 43.3% experienced overall sales increases from 2008—more than twice the rate of stores with sales increases that didn’t host any kind of pastor’s event (21.2%).

Despite a struggling 2009 economy, only 3.2% of respondents said that they plan to close their store this year—down from 6.3% in last year’s survey.

CBA made public only brief details of the report—which is available in full free to member retailers who participated, for $39 to member retailers who did not take part and for $59 for non-member retailers who participated.

The document is also available for $79 to CBA-member suppliers. It is not available to non-member retailers who did not take part in the survey, nor to non-member suppliers.

Commenting on his AMG survey results, Beemer—the author of influential survey reports for CBA in 1998 and 2006—said that he believed Christian retailers could capitalize on the opportunity the data suggested by special mailing to customers.

“I think they would see a greater response than ever before,” he said. “Their destiny is really in their own hands.”

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