Stores, suppliers 'optimistic' with forecasts  for a good Christmas

Although the recession is still impacting shoppers, Christian retailers, suppliers and publishers are hoping for a little merrier holiday season this year.

Several are expecting an increase in Christmas sales over 2009—which yielded mixed results for the retail industry as the downturned economy, double-digit unemployment and a major winter storm hampered 
business. 

Meanwhile, the National Retail Federation (NRF) has predicted that Christmas sales will rise 2.3% to $447.1 billion, about $10 billion more than last year. 

Britt Beemer—CEO and founder of America's Research Group, known for his Christian retail channel studies—called NRF's forecast "maybe a little high," but "reasonable." Though the gloom-and-doom talk of the past two years is not as pronounced, Beemer predicted "a very soft Christmas" for retailers. 

But retailers should see their best Christmas sales in four years as consumers now show some inclination to spend money despite a minimal recovery in the economy, according to a series of recent forecasts.

Children's market consultant and author Mary Manz Simon told Christian Retailing that "a big retail focal point is going to be toys" this holiday season.

"Toys have been quite recession resistant, and the attention that Wal-Mart, Target and Sears are paying to toys already, so far in advance of Christmas, makes me want to tell CBA retailers: 'Make sure your toys are front and center in the store,'" she said. 

Steven Marsh, retail floor manager for Pee Dee Christian Book & Supply in Florence, S.C., told Christian Retailing that the store saw a small sales decline last year over the 2008 Christmas season.

"We are striving our best to make the 2010 Christmas season better than the 2009 Christmas season," he said. "This year we are sending out more Christmas catalogs than we have in the past in hopes of re-engaging some of our less frequent customers. We will also be sending a second Christmas catalog a few weeks after the first catalog to remind our customers."

Todd Whitaker—manager of New Life Christian Stores in Forest, Va., whose father, Jim, is a former CBA chairman—told Christian Retailing that the stores moved to two new locations last fall.

"It's like we're starting over again," he said. "Sales have been slow for a long time now. I'd like for Christmas to pull us out of that, but it may only be a slight rise over everyday sales with this economy.

"We're hoping for a great year like all stores, but I think reality says that consumers may not be spending as much as we'd like," added Whitaker, noting his stores will heavily promote P. Graham Dunn's personal engraving service. "We have to concentrate on the highest-margin items to try to carry us through this season as well as the first part of 2011. … Gift items give the best margin and sell consistently, so we will be pushing those the most."

His Gem owner Julie Kaempfe told Christian Retailing that Christmas sales were up in 2009 from 2008, but the infant apparel company will offer lower price points for its new fall/winter season line after hearing from retailers via a survey conducted by the Munce Group earlier this year.

"I believe shoppers are still spending cautiously," she said. "They want the most for their money. Quality versus quantity is definitely a priority, which makes a great selling feature for our baby products. Also, as we forge our way into the social networking world, we expect that greater awareness of our products will increase sales this Christmas season."

Baker Publishing Group Vice President of Sales and Marketing David Lewis said the company foresaw an increase in sales this fall and Christmas season. 

"While we felt the effects of the economic uncertainty in 2009, we expect a much different experience this year," he said. "In 2009, we saw a decrease in sales, coupled with an increase in returns. However, in 2010 we are seeing a reversal in both areas and we expect that to continue into the future."

Tyndale House Publishers Director of Sales Operations Sharon Heggeland said the company's net sales were up about 5% for last Christmas season from the holiday season.

"We echo the hopes and expectations of our customers that as the employment picture improves, that consumer confidence improves with it," she said. "We don't see a softening, but are looking for somewhere between flat and another 5% increase versus Christmas '09."

Heggeland said Tyndale expected good Christmas sales from recently released titles such as Drew Brees' Coming Back Stronger; Tony Dungy's The Mentor Leader; Joel C. Rosenberg's The Twelfth Imam; and Francine Rivers's Her Daughter's Dream.

At Zondervan, spokesperson Tara Powers said retailers have "responded well" to the company's new holiday-themed titles such as The Berenstain Bears and the Joy of Giving, The Berenstain Bears Give Thanks and The Berenstain Bears' Christmas Tree.
"We're optimistic about the Christmas season and expect increases over last year in P.O.S. (point of sale) sell through," she said. 

Tom Knight, Thomas Nelson's senior vice president of Christian retail sales and ministry development group, said "retailers seem optimistic and poised for a great season."

"With new books from best-selling authors like Max Lucado, Ted Dekker and John MacArthur, along with the growing success of titles like Jesus Calling and Bonhoeffer, we are confident about this Christmas season," he said. "The 2009 Christmas season was flat. We were very price-focused last year. While we will still be aggressive on pricing strategy this Christmas, we are seeing that great content has the power to transcend a low price."

Marty Thomas, buyer and department manager at Shepherd's Fold Books in Rock Hill, S.C., said sales have been down over the past two Christmases.

"After attending an economic forecast meeting several weeks ago, we have been very cautious in our buying," he said. "The forecast was not bad, but the speaker from Wells Fargo/Wachovia said that a lot of our economic growth depends on the elections, and that job growth will be slow going until next Christmas. So needless to say we are taking a conservative look at our future. … Our prayer is that we at least match 2009 or surpass it. You never know until the last sale is made."

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