Retail sales in November and December is forecast to increase 3.9% to $602.1 billion, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). This would be higher than the 3.5% increase seen in the same period in 2012 and the 10-year average holiday sales growth rate of 3.3%.

However, the forecast was calculated before the government shutdown that resulted from Congress’ failure to agree on a spending bill to fund the federal government by Monday night. The shutdown has temporarily furloughed 800,000 federal workers and—if the congressional impasse is not resolved soon—could damage consumer confidence going into the holiday season.

Matthew Shay, president and CEO of NRF, said that the group’s projections do not account for the possibility that the shutdown could continue for several weeks, according to the AP. The shutdown, which began Oct. 1, is now in its third day.

“What we are trying to balance here is the underlying fundamentals with the economy, which seem strong, against all that consumer unease and the uncertainty coming from Washington,” Shay told the AP.

Should an extended shutdown hurt holiday sales, this would not the first time that the federal government’s budget disagreements have impacted retail sales. The highly publicized fiscal-cliff negotiations in Congress in the closing weeks of 2012 did not result in a shutdown, but many retail executives blame the heated negotiations and 11th hour resolution for a drop in sales in late December. A Social Security tax increase—one of the key changes resulting from those negotiations that saw most employees taking home 2% less than the year before—remains a hindering factor in retail sales, according to previous NRF reports and several key retail chains.

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