Retailers can expect a strong season going forward if they win Black Friday and continue with big discounts throughout the season, according to a new America’s Research Group and Inmar Christmas and Holiday Shopping Forecast released last week. Retailers can expect sales to be up 2.5% or higher if shoppers see big discounts early.

“This season, the retailers’ destiny is in their own hands,” said Britt Beemer, chairman and CEO of America's Research Group. “If retailers give consumers mega discounts throughout the season, it will be a very strong season, but if they try to play the game by luring shoppers with limited sale offers, there will be a lot of serious shopper rebellion.”

According to the forecast, consumers are looking for retailers to offer big discounts and big storewide sales, and the retailers with those discounts will win this holiday season.

The number of Americans feeling heavily pressured from debt has lessened this year over last (from 21.4% in 2012 to 16.5% in 2013), and the forecast shows that Americans will be buying for more people this year (consumers shopping for 11-15 people rose from 20.9% last year to 24.6% this year). However, consumers are spending less on each gift, which indicates they are still spending conservatively.

Americans say they will buy more gift cards this year (up from 56.9% to 59%) and of those buying gift cards, more are giving in the $21-$25 price range (up from 27.6% to 30.3%). Furthermore, the number of consumers planning to shop at Amazon and spend more at Amazon has dropped significantly from 18.4% last year to 13.3% this year.

Clothing gifts are up from a year ago (jumping from 25.1% to 32.5% this year, with the bulk of the jump focusing on discount stores. Fewer shoppers are making homemade gifts this year, dropping from 27.5% to 21.2% this year, and fewer are buying for themselves. Self-gifting is down this year from 39.7% last year to 33.1% this season.

“Although we're seeing a growing number of Americans feeling less heavily stressed from the pressures of debt, they're still very cautious about how much to spend at Christmas,” said Beemer.

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