The National Retail Federation (NRF) is forecasting holiday sales to increase 4.1%, according to the organization’s Holiday Consumer Spending Survey.

Conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, NRF’s survey found the average person celebrating Christmas, Kwanza and/or Hanukkah will spend $804.42, up nearly 5% over last year’s actual spending of $767.27.

“Retailers have plenty of reasons to be optimistic this holiday season, and one of the most important pieces of evidence is the confidence holiday shoppers are exuding in their plans to spend on gifts for their loved ones,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “While not completely throwing caution to the wind, Americans’ frugal spending habits will still be visible this holiday season as they continue to rely on discounts and sales and comparison shop. Consumers will put retailers to the test when it comes to the product mix and value companies can offer today’s shopper who is focused on much more than just price.”

The survey found consumers expect to spend an average of $459.87 on gifts for family, up 6.5% from $432 last year, and $80 on gifts for friends, up from $75 last year. Those celebrating the holidays also will spend more on gifts for co-workers ($26.23 vs. $24.52 in 2013) and others like their babysitter and even their pets ($30.43 vs. $26.65).

Spending on traditional items such as decorations and food will remain flat. Consumers will spend an average of $104.74 on food, $53.68 on decorations, $29.18 on greeting cards and $20.30 on flowers, according to the survey.

Self-gifting is expected to decrease this year as shoppers shift their budgets toward spending on others: 56.9% of holiday shoppers say they plan to take advantage of sales and discounts to purchase non-gift items for themselves or others and will spend an average of $126.68, down from $134.77 last year.

As might be expected, online shopping is a popular choice. According to the survey, 56% plan to shop online, up from 51.5% last year and the most in the survey’s 13-year history. Additionally, the average person plans to do 44.4% of their shopping online, the most since NRF first asked the question in 2006.

For the first time, NRF asked consumers about their comfort level using a smartphone or tablet to pay for merchandise at a store checkout counter. According to the survey, 27.4% said they would be somewhat or very comfortable; however, two in five (41.9%) say they are not very or not at all comfortable paying for items that way.

Early-bird shoppers have already been out and about this year. The survey found four in 10 (40.4%) begin their holiday shopping before Halloween, which is consistent with more than 10 years of survey findings. The survey also found 40.9% will begin in November, up slightly from 38.8% last year, and 15.5% will begin in the first two weeks of December, essentially flat compared to 16% last year.

When it comes to why consumers choose to shop where they do during the holiday season, retailers should take heed: One-quarter of shoppers say easy-to-use mobile websites are an important factor in their decision to shop with a specific retailer. Those polled also say free shipping/shipping promotions (42.3%) are important factors. Consumers add that helpful, knowledgeable customer service (30.3%), convenient locations (47.9%), low prices (41.2%) and sales or price discounts (74.7%) also aid in their decision to shop at a particular retailer.

As the market becomes more competitive, retailers in recent years have begun to stress quality and selection of merchandise, and shoppers are paying attention. Six in 10 say quality of merchandise (60.9%) and selection of merchandise (59.4%) are important factors in their decision to shop somewhere.

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