The mood of the American consumer is surprisingly gloomy, according to America’s Research Group’s second Christmas Shopping Forecast of the season.

“It’s not as upbeat as I would have thought,” said Britt Beemer, chairman and CEO of America’s Research Group. “Consumer confidence is down largely because consumers tell us they are not seeing new hires at their places of work. Moreover, more consumers report debt as a big problem at 16% versus 11.4% last year. Americans are still very cautious and more bargain-driven than ever before."

Survey results also show that families who report feeling better off this year dropped to 55.1% from 62% last year. Consumers feel less secure at work at 20.9% versus 15.6% last year. More shoppers report buying only the necessities at 18.3% versus 11.1% in 2013; more report cutting back on spending at 20.4% versus 13% last year; and more report staying away from credit cards at 61% versus 56.8% last year.

“The reason why, again, is that debt is a bigger problem, and consumers don’t see new hiring going on,” Beemer said.

Consumers also report shopping fewer discount stores in October at 86.6% versus 88.3 % last year. Fewer reported shopping national department stores in October at 26.9% versus 28.8% last year, and fewer reported shopping major department stores in the same month at 16.4% versus 19.2%.

Along with more Americans shopping at home improvement stores in October, Beemer cited two other positive factors.

“Two more potential bright spots are that digital couponing has soared to double what it was last year at 22.6% versus 11.2% in 2013,” he said. “Moreover, of those who told us they did not plan to shop Black Friday, 60% said they would do so versus 17.6% in 2013 if Thanksgiving Day newspaper inserts grabbed their attention.

“This season more than any in the last few years, retailers control their own destinies. If they have the right deals and/or offers, we could see an explosion in Black Friday sales.”

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