Strong retail sales gains in the first half of this year have prompted the National Retail Federation (NRF) to revise its 2004 forecast for GAFS sales. According to its forthcoming Retail Sales Outlook report, NRF has revised its 2004 forecast from 5% growth to 6% growth due to phenomenal 9% GAFS sales growth in the first five months of this year. GAFS sales increased 3.9% in 2003.

A long-awaited turnaround in employment has been the newest economic indicator to fall into place, said Rosalind Wells, chief economist of NRF. After the creation of 1.3 million new jobs in the first six months of 2004, the importance of renewed job growth lies in its impact on consumer income.

Though the employment situation has rebounded, new concerns, primarily inflation and rising interest rates, have taken its place. Though inflation has risen as the economy has firmed, NRF believes that inflation will be contained due to a slower rate of economic growth and continued high productivity.

GAFS sales include general merchandise stores, apparel stores, furniture and home furnishings stores, electronics and appliances stores, and sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores.

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